data test; /*创建输入数据集*/
input year x;
cards;
1949 8939
1950 14352
1951 19316
1952 27201
1953 33777
1954 40529
1955 42896
1956 53074
1957 62961
1958 86271
1959 128504
1960 178826
1961 95793
1962 91475
1963 110855
1964 127265
1965 159346
1966 189389
1967 158922
1968 112079
1969 184067
1970 210162
1971 239382
1972 256095
1973 277780
1974 281187
1975 306926
1976 317229
1977 307558
1978 329285
1979 351158
1980 368545
1981 369201
1982 395002
1983 453219
1984 507220
1985 569595
1986 654995
1987 754311
1988 852721
1989 887183
1990 900402
1991 1561177
1992 1732773
1993 1949281
1994 2306361
1995 2389392
1996 2884956
1997 3238982
1998 3641004
1999 3782273
2000 3987078
2001 5300000
2002 5897619
2003 6495238
;
run;
proc arima data=test; /*时序模型阶数确定*/
identify var=x;
run;

estimate p=4;
estimate q=1;
estimate p=4 q=1;
run;